Sunday, May 23, 2010

Bullet proof strategy??

Let say SPY is trading at 109.27 now, and here is the price of its option chain.



Strike Price

5.15 5.29 107 3.45 3.46
4.47 4.61 108 3.81 3.91
3.81 3.95 109 4.2 4.29
3.25 3.3 110 4.58 4.74


Lets assume this.
Long 1 107c, Short 107p = (5.29-3.45) = 1.84, similar to i buy 100 SPY @ (107+1.84).
Short 100 SPY @ 109.27
Profit = 109.27 -108.84 = 0.43



107c @ 5.29 107p @ 3.45 SPY 109.27
100 -5.29 -3.55 9.27 0.43
105 -5.29 1.45 4.27 0.43
110 -2.29 3.45 -0.73 0.43
115 2.71 3.45 -5.73 0.43

So there are confirm profit 0.43.

But is it worth?
Let's calculate cost. Commision fees excluded.
Cost = Long 107c, Short 107p = 184.00
Short 100 SPY @ 109.27 = -10927.
Profit = 43.
Sound like we are using (10927+184) just to earn 43, which is 0.387% in 30 days, or 4.64% per anuum.

How if commision included?

While open the position,
Long/Short = 10+(0.75*2) = 11.50
Short SPY = 10
Total = 21.50

While close the position, there might be 3 scenario, (i) Stock price < price ="="> strike price.
Let's ignore scenario (ii), it is very unlikely to happen.
Scenario (i) and (iii) will have same cost, which is
one option expired worthless, one being assigned. = 20
Close SPY = 10.
Total cost = 30.

Total cost = 30 + 21.50 = 51.50.
Profit = (43-51.50) = -8.50.

So this does not work for 1 option, but what if 10?
Total cost = (25+10) + (20+10) = 65
Profit = (430-65) = 365

Return for the trade in %.
365/(1840+109270) = 0.32%, or 3.94% per annum.

3.94% per annum?
Sound like is the rate we can get if we put the money in the bank. Then why should we make our so difficult to trade on this, sort of 0% return trade?

As far as I knew, if we short a stock, we no need to pay for full amount. It just need 500 for each 100 stock you short. So actual cost u needed to open the trade is actually, 1840+5000 = 6840.
After Math, it would be 5.33%, or 64% per annum.

Wow, 64%........

Will we got margin call if the stock spike?

Nope. We will got margin call, when the account value is less than the amount we risk.
When the stock spike, although the value of stock is depreciating, but the value of call option is appreciate. It will offset the difference, and make your account value unchanged.

What's next?
With the bid/ask spread closer when the market open, the return would be more attractive.
The next thing I would like to confirm is, whether this strategy can be placed on real trade. I got to wait until Monday to do this. Let's see how.

Friday, May 21, 2010

2010/05/21 CLF

SPY make a strong rebound today, after a crazy 3 day sell-off.

Too bad I come back late today, and cannot have a nice time to sit down and trade.
Anyway, CLF is nice.


6th candle trace back to 5EMA and rebound, create a nice tail. Signal.
7th candle trigger.

49.56, 50.00, 50.44, 50.88, 51.32...

7th candle : Move SL to BR.
8th candle : Move SL to 1R.
11th candle : SL at 1R.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

2010/05/11 VOD

Short trigger. 3rd candle.
20.44-->(20.32)-->20.20-->20.08

Stop out -1R.

Trigger reason
-- 2nd candle form tail.
-- 3rd candle break OR. 1st candle low as breaking point.

Lesson learn
-- EMA 5 line too far.
-- should close the trade at 5th/6th candle with -0.5R, cause the chart already looks ugly.

Monday, May 10, 2010

2010/05/10 CBS

CBS trigger 6th candle.
15.02-->15.10-->15.18-->15.26-->15.34...
Stop out at 1R.
p/s: But it did not follow TraderAm rules, which only trade when price move out of OR.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

2010/05/05 SVR



SVR
-- Nice setup on 9th candle. Will trigger if price >= 21.04.
20.91, 21.04, 21.17, 21.30
Failed trigger. 0R.