Some sharing from 2 most brilliant man in the world.
Thanks Lion for sharing, but too bad, his blog in down now.
Happy watching!!
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Monday, July 4, 2011
好朋友
好朋友，就是你闷时约他出来喝茶时，他不会问为什么，你也不需要解释。
好朋友，就是无聊想去他家过夜，他一定ON你。（如果他女朋友不在）
好朋友，就是当你需要他帮忙的时候，你不会觉得不好意思的。
好朋友，就是当你洋洋得意时，会适时给你泼一点冷水，让你清醒一点。
好朋友，就是你跟他谈天时，不用想话题的。
好朋友，就是打DOTA时，你把他给害死了，他最多[鸟] 你一下，过后还是继续帮你杀人的。
长大后，好朋友会越来越少。去蕪存菁过后，所剩无几，更要好好珍惜。不用常常联络，但是那个感觉永远都还是会在的。
好朋友啊，会不会只是我一厢情愿的认为你是我的好朋友呢？
好朋友，就是无聊想去他家过夜，他一定ON你。（如果他女朋友不在）
好朋友，就是当你需要他帮忙的时候，你不会觉得不好意思的。
好朋友，就是当你洋洋得意时，会适时给你泼一点冷水，让你清醒一点。
好朋友，就是你跟他谈天时，不用想话题的。
好朋友，就是打DOTA时，你把他给害死了，他最多[鸟] 你一下，过后还是继续帮你杀人的。
长大后，好朋友会越来越少。去蕪存菁过后，所剩无几，更要好好珍惜。不用常常联络，但是那个感觉永远都还是会在的。
好朋友啊，会不会只是我一厢情愿的认为你是我的好朋友呢？
Thursday, April 14, 2011
GOOG (2011/04)
GOOG's earning will announce after tomorrow market close, and April option expiring date is 15 April, the day after tomorrow. Hence GOOG is one of the best candidate for traders to bet on earning call. Another attractive point is, GOOG always spike after earning announcement. GOOG spiked up 40 dollar during Oct 2010 earning, spiked down 30 dollar during Jan 2011 earning.
Here is the option price for GOOG during 13 April 2011, 11.50pm, @ 576.89.
Call Put
575 14.40 575 12.60
580 11.90 570 10.20
585 9.80 565 8.20
590 8.00 560 6.50
595 6.90 555 5.10
600 5.00 550 4.00
Will keep track of the price tomorrow.
Here is the option price for GOOG during 14 April 2011, 4.00pm, @ 578.51.
Call Put
575 15.80 575 12.00
580 11.80 570 10.00
585 10.30 565 7.50
590 8.00 560 5.90
595 6.70 555 5.00
600 4.90 550 3.30
Strategy
LONG strangle, with price 15/20 dollar from current price.
Result
GOOG slump 5% after result.
GOOG 540.27, at 11.15pm, and below is it's option price at that moment.
Call Put
575 0 575 37.80
580 0 570 32.00
585 0 565 27.30
590 0 560 22.90
595 0 555 18.20
600 0 550 13.20
% If follow the strategy, by LONG 15/20 dollar away strangle, 595c/555p pair, the profit will be (18.20 - (6.70 + 5.50)) = 6.00.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Suitable pair for Carry Trade
Below is a list for suitable Carry Trade currency pair, with positive yield. Assume all trade size is 10,000, with leverage 50:1. Price base on market price on 11 April 2011. All the interest calculation is base on OANDA brokerage rate.
AUD/JPY, LONG (89.178)
Deposit required = 264.98 SGD
Interest / day = 1.41 SGD
1 pips = 1.49 SGD
Spread = 2.1 pips
AUD/USD, LONG (1.05416)
Deposit required = 265.04 SGD
Interest / day = 1.38 SGD
1 pips = 1.26 SGD
Spread = 1.4 pips
EUR/USD, LONG (1.44278)
Deposit required = 362.79 SGD
Interest / day = 0.15 SGD
1 pips = 1.26 SGD
EUR/GBP, LONG (0.88107)
Deposit required = 362.87 SGD
Interest / day = 0.07 SGD
1 pips = 2.06 SGD
Spread = 1.2 pips
EUR/AUD, SHORT (1.36932)
Deposit required = 362.87 SGD
Interest / day = 1.49 SGD
1 pips = 1.32 SGD
Spread = 2.4 pips
Seems like most of the positive yield is highly related with AUD, certainly, with AUD interest rate = 4.75% now.
AUD/JPY, LONG (89.178)
Deposit required = 264.98 SGD
Interest / day = 1.41 SGD
1 pips = 1.49 SGD
Spread = 2.1 pips
AUD/USD, LONG (1.05416)
Deposit required = 265.04 SGD
Interest / day = 1.38 SGD
1 pips = 1.26 SGD
Spread = 1.4 pips
EUR/USD, LONG (1.44278)
Deposit required = 362.79 SGD
Interest / day = 0.15 SGD
1 pips = 1.26 SGD
EUR/GBP, LONG (0.88107)
Deposit required = 362.87 SGD
Interest / day = 0.07 SGD
1 pips = 2.06 SGD
Spread = 1.2 pips
EUR/AUD, SHORT (1.36932)
Deposit required = 362.87 SGD
Interest / day = 1.49 SGD
1 pips = 1.32 SGD
Spread = 2.4 pips
Seems like most of the positive yield is highly related with AUD, certainly, with AUD interest rate = 4.75% now.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Carry Trade
What is Carry Trade?
In short, Currency Carry Trade is a strategy where a trader buy a currency with higher interest rate, while selling another currency with lower interest rate. The trader will gain some interest from the differences between 2 currency.
Can it be substantial?
Yes. Let's say AUD/USD conversion rate is 1:1. You borrow 10000 USD from brokerage/bank, and buy 10000 AUD. AUD interest rate = 4.75% annually, and USD interest rate is 0.25% annually. After 1 year, if AUD/USD conversion rate is still 1:1, then you will get 475 AUD from interest, while paying 25 USD to brokerage/bank, making you have a net income of 475-25 == 450. 450 / 10000, only 4.5% return annually, not very attractive, which can easily being beat by ETF and other hedge fund. But almost all currency broker house provide leverage, from 50:1 up to 200:1. Let's take medium, leverage = 100:1, which means u can deposit USD 100 into your account, and holding a LONG 10000 AUD/USD position. Let's says after 1 year the conversion rate didn't change, you will have USD 450 for this carry trade. 450 / 100 = 450%. Awesome right? But please take currency fluctuation risk into consideration. If after one year, AUD/USD conversion rate drop to 0.97:1.00, by holding such position, actually you only earn 450 - 300 = 150, which is 450 from interest income and 300 from currency lost. Needless to say if AUD/USD drop to 0.90:1.00, which actually you lost 550 (450-1000). Of course if the conversion gain, let's say AUD/USD = 1.10:1.00, you will have double income, 1000 from currency gain and 450 from interest.
Strategy
For this case, we ignore short-term currency fluctuation, and only focus on interest income and long-term trend. With FED crazily printing USD to save US economy, everyone would agree that for long-term, USD is going down for a very solid reason. With all the hot money around the world, the commodity (Gold,silver,metal) price will shoot up. And AUD is well-known as commodity currency. So, for long term, high possibility AUD/USD pair will be up trend.
Current position
With 3000 SGD in the account, I am holding 10000 AUD/USD pair, with price around 0.9700. Earning around 1.3SGD interest pay day, by excluding currency fluctuation factor, I would make 1.3*365 = 474 SGD after a year, which is around 474/3000 = 15.6% annually. I am using Oanda as my currency broker house, which allowed leverage until 50:1. So by this position, (LONG 10000 AUD/USD), it only cost me around 270 SGD as deposit. I can always add up my AUD/USD position when AUD/USD pair drop.
Potential Risk
1. US hike interest rate. This will kill off some of the profit from carry trade, since the interest different between 2 pair is narrowed. This is unlikely to happen in short term, since US economy is just start picking up, FED would not like to kill off this bubble so soon.
In short, Currency Carry Trade is a strategy where a trader buy a currency with higher interest rate, while selling another currency with lower interest rate. The trader will gain some interest from the differences between 2 currency.
Can it be substantial?
Yes. Let's say AUD/USD conversion rate is 1:1. You borrow 10000 USD from brokerage/bank, and buy 10000 AUD. AUD interest rate = 4.75% annually, and USD interest rate is 0.25% annually. After 1 year, if AUD/USD conversion rate is still 1:1, then you will get 475 AUD from interest, while paying 25 USD to brokerage/bank, making you have a net income of 475-25 == 450. 450 / 10000, only 4.5% return annually, not very attractive, which can easily being beat by ETF and other hedge fund. But almost all currency broker house provide leverage, from 50:1 up to 200:1. Let's take medium, leverage = 100:1, which means u can deposit USD 100 into your account, and holding a LONG 10000 AUD/USD position. Let's says after 1 year the conversion rate didn't change, you will have USD 450 for this carry trade. 450 / 100 = 450%. Awesome right? But please take currency fluctuation risk into consideration. If after one year, AUD/USD conversion rate drop to 0.97:1.00, by holding such position, actually you only earn 450 - 300 = 150, which is 450 from interest income and 300 from currency lost. Needless to say if AUD/USD drop to 0.90:1.00, which actually you lost 550 (450-1000). Of course if the conversion gain, let's say AUD/USD = 1.10:1.00, you will have double income, 1000 from currency gain and 450 from interest.
Strategy
For this case, we ignore short-term currency fluctuation, and only focus on interest income and long-term trend. With FED crazily printing USD to save US economy, everyone would agree that for long-term, USD is going down for a very solid reason. With all the hot money around the world, the commodity (Gold,silver,metal) price will shoot up. And AUD is well-known as commodity currency. So, for long term, high possibility AUD/USD pair will be up trend.
Current position
With 3000 SGD in the account, I am holding 10000 AUD/USD pair, with price around 0.9700. Earning around 1.3SGD interest pay day, by excluding currency fluctuation factor, I would make 1.3*365 = 474 SGD after a year, which is around 474/3000 = 15.6% annually. I am using Oanda as my currency broker house, which allowed leverage until 50:1. So by this position, (LONG 10000 AUD/USD), it only cost me around 270 SGD as deposit. I can always add up my AUD/USD position when AUD/USD pair drop.
Potential Risk
1. US hike interest rate. This will kill off some of the profit from carry trade, since the interest different between 2 pair is narrowed. This is unlikely to happen in short term, since US economy is just start picking up, FED would not like to kill off this bubble so soon.
2. AUS reduce interest rate. This is unlikely to happen too, since the inflation pressure at AUS is high. Unless, AUS hit by a major natural disaster, such as earth quake, flood, tornado, etc, which force the AUS to reduce interest rate to boost the economic, just like what New Zealand had done recently, after NZ hit by major earth quake at Christchurch.
3. Commodity price collapse. Unlikely to happen in short term, since all the hot money have no where else to go to.
Friday
周一上课，周二上课，周三打球，周四加班，周五......
终于有一天可以7.00之前到家了。洗完澡，看到天空还是亮的，感觉真好。
好好在沙发上，看点书，拿个漂亮的杯，喝酸酶汁，看点杂志...
It's Friday....
终于有一天可以7.00之前到家了。洗完澡，看到天空还是亮的，感觉真好。
好好在沙发上，看点书，拿个漂亮的杯，喝酸酶汁，看点杂志...
It's Friday....
Sunday, March 27, 2011
读书和考试
朋友share了一个很有趣的clip,翻唱Eason的[陀飞轮]，考试版。
如果，读书，就只是那么单纯的读书，不用考试，那该多好啊！
就那样读啊，读啊，不用特地去背一些什么东西。就那样读过，存在脑里，一旦需要用到时，就可以拿出来用，跟朋友分享（基本是吹水）。
没压力的读书，是最幸福的。
如果，读书，就只是那么单纯的读书，不用考试，那该多好啊！
就那样读啊，读啊，不用特地去背一些什么东西。就那样读过，存在脑里，一旦需要用到时，就可以拿出来用，跟朋友分享（基本是吹水）。
没压力的读书，是最幸福的。
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