NTES Trade Update

NTES, (2008/12/12 post)

Short : 19.40
Buy to cover : 20.64

Lost : (1.24)

So volatile market, which make NTES move again what I predicted previously, hit my stop lost point 20.60. The trade trigger and I BTC at 20.63, lost 1.24.

Unexpected FED cut the interest rate to near Zero, make the market start turn from down trend and move toward short term bull. Personally, I am still bear about current market. Will look for nice short trade set up.

GM should go to 0?

I really cannot see any point why GM stock price still above 3.90 today. The shareholder equity already negative for a long time. If this happen in Malaysia, KLSE will issue a PN4 to this company. If the company still cannot turn the shareholder equity to positive, in 4 quarter, they will be delisted.

From my point of view, no matter what happen, (bailout or not), it's stock price should be < 1. It is a easy mathematics calculation. But people emotion and hopes drive it up. And true to me, I am not dare to short it now also. So let's us see what would happen next.

I think it would be only in US, the bailout being so difficult to be done. If this happen to Proton, Honda, or Hyundai, the Malaysia, Japan, Korean government will not hesitate to save it. I am not sure Congress (Parliment) have a right to deny it, maybe the government just use the money, and without notice anyone. (Just like what recently happen on Malaysia, government inject 5 billion in Valuecap). I not even know what Valuecap is. Did malaysia government ask anyone to apporve this? I am not sure, but probably no.

2008/12/12 SPY

No one can anticipate that the auto bailout plan, will die in Senate, although already been passed in Congress. And now, the White House step in to prevent a collapse on auto sector. Until the time I wrote this post, the White House still haven't come out any plan on the replacement bailout plan, but it just promise it will do so, the bailout.

And on 2008/12/12, SPY experienced a perfect swing, which it up nearly 5% if compare to session low, making the chart become more unpredictable. If you look at the chart, SPY still haven't break the major trend line, but it formed an uptrend line from 2008/11/20 low. But the MACD showed positive divergence, so it would more likely to be uptrend. But all still depend on the unpredicted news, such as GS, MS report on next week, and the most importantly, the auto bailout plan.

For my personal view, I think White House should not save the auto maker. But it may arrange it into more manageable bankrupt plan, or merge them together, to compete with Germany and Japan automaker. Certainly, everybody know, US automaker are not competitive enough, it is not a secret. And, with lending 14 billion to them, to pay the dealer, won't solve anything. Everybody know it, but they are trying to avoid a massive collapse on auto.

There are still a lot of uncertainty on financial sector. And the first 350 billion of TARP, already dry up after save the giant bank, Citigroup. If they still lend the money to automaker, when another round of financial institution problem arise, they will not able to act. It will be unlikely the second phase of 350 billion will be pass for current Bush administration.

We shall see, in the next few day.

2008/12/12 NTES

Though not a strong down trend, but is quite a nice trade. Might not sell on target, maybe on 1-2R is enough, on this volatile market.

NTES
=======
Sell when below : 19.40
Stop Lost : 20.60
Target : 15

Risk : 1.2
Reward : 4.4
RRR : 3.6

WLP, HCN Trade Update

HCN, (2008/11/28 post)

Short : 37.20
Buy to cover : 34

Earn : 3.20.

-Day Trade. Set BTC(Buy to cover). Never think of market will drop like this. Really volatile market.

WLP, (2008/12/01 post)

Short : 34.20
BTC : 36.99

Lost : (2.80)

- Never think the market change into up trend again, in such a short period. The key point I wish to share here is, I should had SL at 36.20, according to my initial plan, but I didn't. This make me pay for additional 0.80, to cover this mistake. I am lucky, but not again.

2008/12/01 WLP

Just a quick one. It looks bearish for the market. But SPY stay hold above 80 in these few days, then the trend might change.

WLP
=======
Sell when below : 34.20
Stop Lost : 36.50
Target : 27

Risk : 2.3
Reward : 7.2
RRR : 3.13

SPY 2008/11/28, AVB HCN

SPY rise in the short session of last trading day in Nov, post the biggest 5-day gain since 1929, broking most analyst glass. However, we can see low volume on this few day, which mean the real challenge will begin next week, with all the investors and traders come back after the holiday. The previous high 92.06, will perform as a short term resistance. If it cannot break through on the following week, we shall see some pull back and profit taking action. Uncertainty remain, with big 3 automaker fate, and possibility of more financial institution will dry up, and seek for government help.

Have 2 watch list currently. AVB and HCN. Both showing sign of reversal, and Reward/Risk Ratio is high. Will watch closely on Monday.

AVB
=======
Sell when below : 58.46
Stop Lost : 62.29
Target : 41.43

Risk : 3.83
Reward : 17.46
RRR : 4.5

HCN
=======
Sell when below : 37.05
Stop Lost : 40
Target : 30

Risk :2.95
Reward : 7.05
RRR : 2.39

SPY 2008/11/27

Today is holiday, Thanksgiving days. No market today, hence spend some time to review the current SPY situation.

SPY rally for the fourth day, although all the news announce is bad news. Let's look at the chart, although the price increase, but the volume is dropping. This might be a sign of weak rally. It is still down trend, and will have a resistance at 93-94.

I think now is a good time to short. I might be wrong. But I still cannot see any sign of recovery. The big 3 car maker bailout will have a great debate. Still a lot of uncertainty. Again, 80 is a crucial support line for SPY.

Pull Out

I admit the lost. I pull out all my position on US stock yesterday, with 3.3k USD lost. The reason of pull out is, I am exposing too much money on the most risky region, and most risky sector, financial, which might post a great return (if recover), but might cause a deadly effect, if it collapse. So, I pull out because I can't take the risk.

After selling my Citibank, it continue to soar today, reach USD7.00. But I do not regret, because I cannot take the risk, hence, those who able to take the risk, should experience they gain. I am still bearish on current market. Hence I will create bear call spread.
Ya, it is pain, cut-lost is far far more difficult than profit taking. It need courage. Anyhow, I hope C won't collapse, because a lot of my friend still holding it, some of my friend working at C. Hope this crisis will over faster, and not affect everyone's life.

I will trade on short term credit spread, until I see another opportunity, and this time, I will hold for long run.

梦想（2）

看到一篇很有趣的故事，贴上来提醒提醒自己一下。

话有個老魔鬼看到人間的生活過得太幸福了，他說：「我們要去擾亂一下，要不然魔鬼就不存在了。」

他先派了一個小魔鬼去擾亂一個農夫。因為他看到那農夫每天辛勤地工作，可是所得卻少得可憐，但他還是那麼快樂，非常知足。

小魔鬼就開始想，要怎樣才能把農夫變壞呢？他就把農夫的田地變得很硬，讓農夫知難而退。那農夫敲半天，做得好辛苦，但他只是休息一下，還是繼續敲，沒有一點抱怨。小魔鬼看到計策失敗，只好摸摸鼻子回去了。

老魔鬼又派了第二個去。第二個小魔鬼想，既然讓他更加辛苦也沒有用，那就拿走他所擁有的東西吧！那小魔鬼就把他午餐的麵包跟水偷走，他想，農夫做得那麼辛苦，又累又餓，卻連麵包跟水都不見了，這下子他一定會暴跳如雷！

農夫又渴又餓地到樹下休息，想不到麵包跟水都不見了！「不曉得是哪個可憐的人比我更需要那塊麵包跟水？如果這些東西就能讓他得溫飽的話，那就好了。」又失敗了，小魔鬼又棄甲而逃。

老魔鬼覺得奇怪，難道沒有任何辦法能使這農夫變壞？就在這時第三個小魔鬼出來了。他對老魔鬼講：「我有辦法，一定能把他變壞。」

小魔鬼先去跟農夫做朋友，農夫很高興地和他作了朋友。因為魔鬼有預知的能力，他就告訴農夫，明年會有乾旱，教農夫把稻種在濕地上，農夫便照做。結果第二年別人沒有收成，只有農夫的收成滿坑滿谷，他就因此而富裕起來了。

小魔鬼又每年都對農夫說當年適合種什麼，三年下來，這農夫就變得非常富有。他又教農夫把米拿去釀酒販賣，賺取更多的錢。慢慢地，農夫開始不工作了，靠著經濟販賣的方式，就能獲得大量金錢。

有一天，老魔鬼來了，小魔鬼就告訴老魔鬼說：「您看！我現在要展現我的成果。這農夫現在已經有豬的血液了。」只見農夫辦了個晚宴，所有富有的人都來參 加；喝最好的酒，吃最精美的餐點，還有好多的僕人侍候。他們非常浪費地吃喝，衣裳零亂，醉得不省人事，開始變得像豬一樣癡肥愚蠢。「您還會看到他身上有著 狼的血液。」小魔鬼又說。


這時，一個僕人端著葡萄酒出來，不小心跌了一跤。農夫就開始罵他：「你做事這麼不小心！」「唉！主人，我們到現在都沒有吃飯，餓得渾身無力。」「事情沒有做完，你們怎麼可以吃飯！」

老魔鬼見了，高興地對小魔鬼說：「唉！你太了不起！你是怎麼辦到的？」小魔鬼說：「我只不過是讓他擁有比他需要的更多而已，這樣就可以引發他人性中的貪婪。」

心若改變，你的態度跟著改變；
態度改變，你的習慣跟著改變；
習慣改變，你的性格跟著改變；
性格改變，你的人生跟著改變。

這篇文章分享給每一個在為夢想努力奮鬥的你，提醒我們在努力追求夢想的同時， 千萬不要忘了最初的本心。

法治的终极境界

法治，预先假设人们的本性，都是恶的，需要严法来管制。制定的法，基本的基础是，已所不予，勿施于人。例如，我们不想被人杀，那我们就要放弃杀人的权利，以此类推。

法律，是大家一起讨论出来的，不轻易更改。法律，基本上是要用来保护大家，包括统治者，权贵，士子，工人，百姓。但是，当初大部分的权利，都聚在权贵，和统治者手里，所以当初制定法律的时候，通常这些人都有一点点特权，除非，当时权贵里出了一个全心为公的大人物，不然基本上，法律，一定有一些不平等。不过，这样的伟人，好像只有华盛顿。

假定，法律是平等的，不分权贵，平民。那么，法，就是一个终极的工具，事事依法，事事有法可循，万事不违法。但是，谁真正懂法？平民百姓，没几个懂，就连白领阶级的，也未必懂得那厚厚几千页的法。最终，还是那些权贵懂法多一些，因为他们一定要懂，懂了才可以走漏洞，才可以在法的边锋上行走。摆明是不对的行为，但是不违法，你又奈得他何？例子很多，林甘的“it sounds like me, looks like me, but it is not me!" 陈水扁的贪污案，阿都拉萨的无罪释放，等等。。。。都是当权者在玩把戏，但是我们平民就只能干着急，没办法做一些什么。

人心，才是这一切的根源。如果人心不善，多么好的法，也会被滥用。怎样修心？最好让因果报应的思想，根植在人们的脑里，这样至少会造成白色恐怖，让人们在做坏事时，也会想象以后的报应。

法治的终极境界，就会让那些掌控法，执法，知法的人，为所欲为。修心，才是王道。别让黑心把良心给吞了。

梦想

曾经，大家都有梦想。实际的，不实际的；可笑的，浪漫的；伟大的......等等。。但是，当年纪一天天的变大，就会发现我们离开当年的梦想，越来越远，越来越远.....远到自己都差点忘了当初的.....

其实，就一个平凡人来说，人的基本要求，不就是，住（一间家），行（一辆车）和一个爱人。但是，人们往往要的更多。在这个资本主义泛滥的社会，一个人的成就，往往取决与他的财富。所以，没有别的办法，只好拼命赚钱...赚钱。

比起二十年前，现在的年轻人的压力更大。试想想，20年前，大学毕业生平均薪金1500-2000，两层楼的排屋，60，000。现在，大学毕业生平均薪金2500-3000，两层楼的排屋，300，000。看到分别了吗？而且，房价还在上涨，这逼使了现在的年轻人，只好早一些买屋子，26岁就要买屋子了。这样，现金就会被锁，也没有勇气再尝试新的机会，因为每个月要给那1千多，还真的是不简单。

那当初的梦想呢？没办法，买了屋子，就差不多在那个地方扎了根，接下来的十年，应该也是在那里了。梦想，就只好暂时忘了。。是啊，三十年房贷，一生人就只是还债了。

其实，是谁说30岁之前一定要有屋子，没人说过。但是当你看到附近的同学们，大家都开始买自己的屋子了，能不能顶着这股压力，还是很难说。

梦想，还是要坚持；要真的不能了，也把它变小；但不能让它消失。要顶住社会，同僚的压力，坚持走自己的路。。至少，在我心中，还有个没崩坏的地方，坚持着梦想。

Investing Vs. Trading

Yesterday ask Lion, "since when we stop to cut loss, if we apply cut loss, we still can reserve most of our money, and wait for other opportunity, and even can make money at this market." Lion's answer is great, "For me, I am investing, and not trading. If you are trading, you should apply cut loss, but for investing, you are buying the business. So if the price is cheap to you, buy it and hold it."

Am I trading, or am I investing? This make me think twice. All the while, I am trading US options, and certainly that is trading. And my experience is, "cut loss when the market against you". Do not let all your profit, which collect small small portion from many trade, lost on a single trade. I experience this before, earn 100% of my portfolio in one month, and lost them all in another month, including my principal.

That is options, but now i buying stock, marvelous, great stock before, before this 2008 crisis. And as state in my previous post, I jump in too early, and now experience 40% lost of my portfolio. I am not scare this time, not as previous when I buy options, because options have expire dates, stock do not. But my fearless come with one assumption, which is these finance giant won't collapse, won't bankrupt like Lehman. I really cannot imagine a world, where Citibank suddenly disappear. Hardly imagine right, but who knows, maybe this will happen, no people will predict the collapse of Lehman also. Quote from John Mccain, "We don't hide from history, we made history!" Yes, US always make history, goods and bads. If really Citi going to collapse, let me spend some money inside, joining this history moment.

Yes, now i switch from trading to investing, partly being force to. But deep inside my heart, I still prefer trading rather than investing. If I only stick to my plan of bear call spread, my portfolio could reach at least 200%. Until now, I earn 20% every month from bear call spread, but of course, these money lost while I buy other options. I should try to find a security, which can provide cheaper price for bear call spread trading. TD Ameritradde a bit expensive, when open position, already lost 1.5% + USD20, this is quite a big ammount, if my spread is only 6%, the transaction fees already chew up >25% of my profit.

Nothing can do now, because most of the money being used to buy those giant stock. Certainly, at this volatile market, open credit spread position is really risky. The index can climb and drop >5% per day easily. Open normal call or put options is more practical, RRR(Return/Risk Ratio) is higher.

Again, I prefer trading rather than investing.

Crisis

I am so lucky, which I am able to step into invest world as 10 year old, although that time i was not really investing, i was gambling.

I had gone through 1993 crazy bull run on KLSE, 1997 Asia crisis, 2000 Tech bubble, 2003 SARS, and now, 2007 sub-prime. I always ask myself, since I had been hit down so hard on 1997, will i able to escape from the next financial crisis. I had been asking for so many time since Feb 2007, which the bull start to fade. Unfortunately, the answer is no. I am still in the market, enjoying the paper loss, which wape out all my 2006 gain.

Frankly, I can only said i was investing start 2000, thanks to internet, which allow us to read a lot of data online, making the world flat, fair to everyone. Thanks Lion, who actually bring me into the real investing heaven, US market. US stock market is the most complete stock market in the world, you can make money in all direction. There is no reason you cannot make money, just you might be in wrong position. In KLSE, when bear market, what we can do is pull out all the money, and wait to recover.

One of my friend, asked me before:"when will you pull out money from stock?". I said " I dunno". He said "then you are just playing a figure's game, watching the figure up and down, and you will never pull the money out!" Yes, he is true, i seldom pull my money out, it is just like a black hole, money go in, will hardly able to pull it out. But I believe that, it will bring me toward another level of financial freedom one day. Yes, that day will come.

This sub-prime crisis already last for one year, maybe the worst is pass, maybe is not. My prediction is correct, the stock will drop very fast, unreasonable fast, but it won't climb unreasonable. Hence my early strategy on doing bear call spread is correct, which make me earn a lot of money. But with the incredible 7 days down, i had been jump in into it on 3th day. It will be a good buy, only if the worst is behind us, else.......my confident level is not high.

The more you read, you know how naive you are.

First Post for Dream

Finally create a blog, on today, 2008/11/05, not a special day, but is the date Obama become US president.

Suddenly come out this title "DREAM". US had create a history, they always do, when will we? To create a nation which din care about what racial we are.....First post, dun write to much in politics.

Dream always fade when age grow. How to maintain the passion on chasing our dream?